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以嫌犯為中心的DNA混合型判讀偏見

2018/10/09

Forensic Magazine September 19, 2018: Suspect-centric Bias in DNA Mixture Interpretation

by Mark W. Perlin, Ph.D., M.D.

Bias abounds in criminal justice. Predictive policing can bake bias into software, reflecting and reinforcing prior beliefs. Bail-risk computer programs may entrench pre-trial detention disparity. Human judgment pervades the process. Prosecutor and defender alike passionately argue their client’s case, drawing opposite conclusions from identical facts.

Science is above the fray. Objective data suggest forensic match between crime scene and suspect. Statistical data analysis yields incontrovertible numbers for the strength of match. Cold DNA facts are presented as confirmed theories in court.

But what if DNA analysts could pick and choose their data? Or adjust software parameters to suit their theories? Changing data and parameters will alter forensic match results. Quantitatively, subjective manipulation can artificially inflate match strength. Qualitatively, some DNA evidence that excludes a suspect may be statistically twisted to include him.

Suspect-centric bias has long plagued forensic science. The mythic infallibility of fingerprint analysis was shattered when the FBI misidentified Brandon Mayfield in the Madrid bombing case. Confirmation bias just puts a number to a foregone match conclusion. Suspect-centric thought twists forensic facts to suit prosecution theories.

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